Where does all this come from?
Entirely from Paul Graham's essay
"How to Earn a Billion Dollars" (June 2026), based on a talk at the Oxford Union. His claim: a billion isn't a moral puzzle — it's the output of two numbers, a growth rate and how long it lasts.
Why is a billion "just two numbers"?
Because revenue compounds: final = start × (1 + growth rate)months. Once you fix the monthly growth rate and the duration, the endpoint is arithmetic. The calculator runs that formula and marks where a founder's stake crosses $1B.
Is 15%/month really enough?
PG's own example: 15%/month sustained for 5 years is 1.1560 ≈ 4,384×. He calls this achievable "without cheating" if users genuinely love the product and tell their friends. The aggressive 93%/month case ($2M → $1B in ~9.5 months) is the theoretical ceiling, not a plan.
What does "Company value (10×)" mean?
A rough proxy: high-growth companies are often valued at a multiple of revenue. We use 10× annual revenue as a round, conservative stand-in. It's a simplification — real multiples vary widely by sector and market.
Why does the OYASS scenario say "time to $1B = never"?
That's the honest signal, not a bug. A high-margin services business with capped per-customer revenue (ARPU) can be excellent yet never compound to a billion. The model separates "great business" from "billion-dollar shape" — exactly the distinction PG's two numbers expose.
Isn't becoming a billionaire zero-sum or unethical?
PG's central argument is no: "it will happen automatically if you just keep making customers happy… The key is not exploitation but empathy." The
Empathy vs. Exploitation Audit turns that claim into a checklist.
Linear vs. Log on the chart — which should I use?
Use Log (default) to read growth: on a log axis, steady compounding is a straight line whose slope is the growth rate. Use Linear to feel the raw "hockey stick" — flat for years, then near-vertical. Same data, two lenses.
What are the MINY and OYASS scenarios?
They're
applications of PG's model to two VE LAB ventures, not from the essay. Their starting numbers are editable estimates from internal beachhead docs — drag the sliders on
The Curve to correct them.
Is this investment advice?
No. It's an educational model of one essay. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation.